Today's imminent annihilation is the culmination of years of pain. The chart also shows that it's not just about losses on deferred bonuses held by Credit Suisse bankers at the end of 2022. These are the people who will be most feverishly dreading the UBS deal today. They hold around 50% of its deferred stock and contingent capital. The pain would be felt most acutely by Credit Suisse's 1,500 so material risk takers and controllers - its senior bankers, traders and compliance, risk and accounting professionals. They would also be at risk of losing CHF360m in contingent capital awards if the value of Credit Suisse's common equity tier one ratio (CET1 ratio) falls below 5.125% of its risk weighted assets. If UBS acquires CS for CHF0.25, the implication is that they would lose all but CHF62m of this. When deferred cash bonuses and contingent capital awards are excluded, employees at the bank had CHF688m ($745m) of deferred share bonuses at the end of 2022, based on a share price of CHF2.76. Just how much employees would be hurt from an acquisition at CHF0.25 is illustrated by the chart below, taken from Credit Suisse's recent compensation report. Credit Suisse is reportedly pushing back against this offer, and is doing so partly because it would hurt employees who hold bonuses in deferred stock. The Financial Times reports that UBS is offering to pay CHF0.25 for Credit Suisse shares. Yesterday, the Financial Times said it was coming last night, and if not last night Bloomberg said tonight at the very latest: UBS will likely be acquiring Credit Suisse, and it will be doing so at far below Friday's CHF2.86 closing price. Credit Suisse may not like it, UBS may not like it either, but an announcement is almost certainly coming.
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